(Photo: ASU athletics)
Arizona State (2-0) opens up Pac-12 play on Saturday with a trip to Boulder to square off against the University of Colorado (1-1) at the recently-renovated Folsom Field.
Both teams have surpassed the 40-point plateau in their last contests, and thanks to porous defenses and thin air, that high-scoring trend should continue Saturday night.
That was the gist; here are the details.
Snapshot of Colorado
The Sun Devils walloped Colorado last year in Tempe, 54-13, and let’s not sugarcoat the obvious: The Buffs are in rebuild mode once again in 2014.
Along with sophomore quarterback Sefo Liufau, five other underclassmen have earned starting positions for Colorado on the offensive depth chart. Similarly, six underclassmen, including two freshman, have been named starters on the defensive side of the ball.
Unfortunately for Colorado, that inexperience was evident in its season opener. After leading for much of the game, Colorado crumbled in the fourth quarter and lost to in-state foe Colorado State for the second time in three seasons. The team then rebounded with a come-from-behind win in Week 2, topping Massachusetts 41-38.
Liufau has tossed five touchdowns and only thrown one interception in two games, to go along with a 61.7 completion percentage and a 137.6 passer rating. He is not in the same stratosphere as Taylor Kelly in terms of pocket presence or overall polish, but his ability to distribute the ball to his playmakers could pose some matchup dilemmas for the Sun Devils.
Matchup to Watch
Nelson Spruce vs. ASU secondary
Speaking of those matchup dilemmas, here is one that Coach Todd Graham will monitor closely.
Though not blessed with the same explosiveness or raw athletic ability, Nelson Spruce has largely been viewed as the successor to Paul Richardson. The task is a tall one, especially given how Richardson torched the Pac-12 last year for 83 catches and 1,343 yards en route to being drafted by the Seahawks in the second round of the NFL draft.
But two games into the young 2014 season, Spruce has lived up to the lofty expectations. Spruce currently leads the Pac-12 in receiving yards per game (124.5) and in receiving touchdowns (4), and his 17 catches are only second to the 20 hauled in by Washington State’s Vince Mayle.
For the Sun Devils, Lloyd Carrington will get the bulk of the coverage assignments, with SPUR linebacker Laiu Moeakiola presumably spelling him on specific packages.
Spruce has an ever-so-slight physical advantage (he stands at 6’1”, 195 pounds while Carrington is 5’11”, 189 pounds) and that corresponds nicely with his overall game. He is not a speedster, so the Buffs like to get him the ball in space via bubble screen passes—much like the Broncos frequently do with Demaryius Thomas—to allow him to break tackles and head up field.
As such, Spruce’s matchup with the Sun Devil secondary should be an interesting one.
ASU wins if…
DJ Foster touches the ball.
And when I say “touches,” one touch would do the trick.
Colorado’s run defense has been dismal so far in 2014. In fact, in its season opener, Colorado allowed two 100-yard rushers against Colorado State—the first time Colorado State has had two 100-yard rushers since 1996. In that game, Colorado allowed a total of 266 rushing yards, and then conceded 104 more to Massachusetts (a team that had a mere 55 rushing yards against Boston College in their season opener) the following week.
During that span of defensive ineptitude for Colorado, DJ Foster has been posting otherworldly numbers. The feature running back for the Sun Devils has totaled 363 rushing yards (third most in the nation) on 34 carries, to give him a sparkling 10.7 yards per carry (seventh best in the nation). His position as seventh-best in rushing yards per carry would change to first if a “25-carry minimum” threshold were in place.
In other words, even if Foster’s playing time in Saturday’s game may only span the duration of one half, his monster season is bound to continue against Colorado’s leaky run defense.
ASU loses if…
The Curse of the Bambino and the Curse of the Billy Goat are actually proven to be true.
Whenever curses and omens are brought into sports it is obvious that we are resorting to dire measures to explain something that mystifies us. Why could the Red Sox not win a World Series for 86 years? Why have the Cubs not won a World Series in the last 105 years?
Curses. Obviously.
Sure, stats like ASU being 5-0 in the all-time series, ASU outscoring Colorado 206-61 in the all-time series and ASU never scoring under 40 points and never allowing more than 17 points in the all-time series may sound like sufficient statistical evidence that ASU will result victorious.
But, stats and hard evidence fail to account for omens, and ASU undoubtedly has one in the form of a jersey-jinx going against them.
The Sun Devils announced that the team would be sporting a different helmet-jersey-pants combination than they wore in the first two games. Maroon helmet, white jersey, maroon pants is the sequence of choice for Saturday’s contest.
Not coincidentally, the last time ASU selected this uniform combination, they received a 37-23 drubbing from Texas Tech in the 2013 Holiday Bowl.
While this may seem like a preposterous claim, if a curse was powerful enough to entrench two big league ball clubs in mediocrity for a combined 191 years, who is to say that these same mechanisms will not be at work for a single college football game?
Prediction
Arizona State 56
Colorado 17
Follow Jacob Garcia on Twitter @Jake_M_Garcia or connect with him on LinkedIn.
