(Photo: Brooke Faber/WCSN)
After defeating Washington State in the quarterfinal round by a score of 67-48, Arizona State looks to take down Stanford for the third time this season.
Despite an early defensive battle that resulted in the lowest scoring first half in Pac-12 tournament history, Arizona State (27-4, 16-3 Pac-12) caught fire in the second, scoring 48 of their 67 points after the break. Sophie Brunner led the way for the Sun Devils with 14 points and five rebounds despite only playing four minutes in the first half.
Stanford (22-9, 15-3 Pac-12) was nearly upset by UCLA in the quarterfinal round, but leaned on stellar play from senior guard Amber Orrange for a 67-62 victory. Orrange had 18 points in the game, 13 of which she scored in a second half flurry that helped keep the Cardinal on top.
This will be the third time that Arizona State and Stanford meet this season, with the Sun Devils taking both of the previous games by a total of four points.
“It’s really hard to beat a team three times, especially a team that’s as good as Stanford in that tradition,” said Coach Charli Turner Thorne. “It’s going to be a great opportunity for us to play a great team on a neutral floor and play better basketball.”
Keys to the Game:
-Brunner/Moos vs Johnson/McCall
Obviously it will be important for Arizona State to stop Orrange from scoring, but the Promise Amukamara, also known as the “Nigerian Nightmare,” is more than likely going to draw that assignment, so the matchup the Sun Devils need to focus on is the post matchups of Sophie Brunner and Kelsey Moos against Kaylee Johnson and Erica McCall. Johnson and McCall have had great seasons for the Cardinal and were instrumental in the victory over UCLA, with Johnson scoring eight points and grabbing seven rebounds while freshman McCall had one of the best games of her young career, scoring 10 points and adding eight rebounds. Arizona State will need Brunner and Kelsey Moos to play extremely physical and get the Stanford posts out of their comfort zone in order to set themselves up for success.
-Rebounding
In both of the first two matchups this season, the pattern was the same—when Arizona State was outrebounding Stanford, they were dominating Stanford. In the first matchup, the Sun Devils absolutely manhandled the Cardinal on the boards, allowing them to take a 17-point halftime lead and ultimately hang on for a victory. In the second game, the Cardinal were much better on the glass and took a 12-point advantage early into the second half. Luckily for Arizona State, the heroics of Quinn Dornstauder kept them alive, but you can’t count on one player to bail the whole team out like that again. It is absolutely essential for the Sun Devils to win the rebounding battle if they want to move on to the tournament championship.
-Play a 40-minute game
Over the last few weeks, it has seemed as if Arizona State hasn’t played a full game. The Sun Devils usually either get ahead at the break only to squander the lead in the second half en route to a dramatic victory (see USC), or they struggle mightily in the first half and then pull away in the second with an impressive display (see Washington State). Against Washington State, the Sun Devils shot only 8-29 (27.6 percent) from the field in the first half causing them to score only 19 points, but exploded in the second half to shoot 17-24 (70.8 percent) and turn what was a three-point halftime lead into a 19-point blowout. Arizona State might be able to get away with that against Washington State, but not against a team like Stanford. The Sun Devils will need to play a complete game to beat the Cardinal.
X-Factor:
The X-factor in this game is the Arizona State bench players. Stanford has a very deep and well-coached team, and usually gets contribution from their bench, so the Sun Devils’ role players will need to execute and contribute in order for Arizona State to beat Stanford and move on to the final round of the tournament.
Prediction:
If the first two matchups are any indication of how this game is going to unfold, be sure to have your popcorn ready. Arizona State and Stanford are two teams that are familiar with one another and matchup extremely well, so there’s almost no doubt in my mind that this game will be a thriller. In the end, the Sun Devils will sneak past the Cardinal, possibly in overtime, to punch their ticket to the Pac-12 tournament championship game.
