(Photo: Scotty Bara/WCSN)
Last week Sun Devil fans saw an Arizona State football team that they’d never seen before, and not just because there was a new face under center. It was the Devils’ first serious test against real competition, and the team many fans saw was disheveled, unprepared, inexperienced, raw and exploitable. Nobody was sure what would show up the first time a largely very young ASU team got thrown into the fire, and at face value it looked like Todd Graham’s team largely crashed and burned.
But the (roundly embarrassing) score wasn’t the only story of this game, and so we’ve brought back our crew of CronkiteSports.com football insiders and experts to break down what you might not have seen – as well as explain some of the things you did see – and help make sense of what you might be able to expect going forward.
–Cuyler Meade
What did you learn from the UCLA game?
Jacob Garcia: I learned that Mike Bercovici can lead an offense, but that it is unnecessary for him to do so.
A backup for his entire collegiate career until last week’s game, Bercovici is not a volume quarterback. That is, he can be more effective with a limited amount of pass attempts. The risk far outweighs the reward in the sense that giving Bercovici 68 drop backs simply exposes him to more opportunities to turn the ball over. We all saw how the defense crumpled as a result. Without Taylor Kelly, the Sun Devils offense will have to be more methodical, more systematic and more balanced when they have the ball. Controlling time of possession will be critical. The best way to mask the massive holes on defense is to simply keep them off the field for as long as possible.
Adam Stites: That this defense isn’t as ready as they may have appeared against Colorado and New Mexico. That’s not to say that they crushed either of those offenses, but against solid units, the ASU defense looked like it could hold its own.
I think it’s important to note that the ASU did not look overmatched from a talent perspective against the Bruins, as the scoreboard would seem to indicate. The Sun Devils have the athletes and skill to compete, they’re just far too inexperienced and young to avoid getting beat by the big plays that so many Pac-12 teams are capable of.
Matt Harden: The defense is further away than anyone wants to admit. We all know they are young. We all know the front can get no pressure without blitzing. We all know the secondary has not faced a group of receivers or a quarterback as talented as UCLA’s. But we also know there is a lot of talent in this defensive group and many are just waiting for the proverbial light to click on.
After their performance against UCLA, however, many of us on the outside should be looking in and wondering if that will happen this year. Sure, a case can be made for the defense being overwhelmed by the moment. They had not seen UCLA before in person. They had not faced an offense as talented before.
But therein lies the problem. The tests are only going to get tougher for the defense. Every week from now to the end of the season, they are going to see things they have not seen before from teams they have not faced. Stanford’s power run game. Oregon State’s fly-sweep play-action game. Washington State’s shotgun, hurry-up and throw-the-ball-80-times attack.
I’m not saying the defense will not get better; they will. But expecting a defense with so many inexperienced players rotating in and out of the lineup to be championship quality was and still is foolish. The defense needs time. Years not weeks.
What difference, if any, would Taylor Kelly have made on the game if he had been healthy?
JG: The margin of victory for UCLA would have been far less than 35 points, but ultimately, the outcome of the game would have been the same. Kelly would not have made the bone-headed decision of trying to thread the ball into a tight window right before the half—which lead to an Ishmael Adams 90-yard pick-six — nor would Kelly have underthrown as many receivers as Bercovici did. But when the defense allows three other plays of 80-plus yards, there is only so much a quarterback can do. It is convenient to shove the issue under the rug and claim that starting a backup quarterback was the root of the problem. But frankly, the defense was brutal. Taylor Kelly has no control over that.
AS: Arizona State actually probably would’ve remained competitive in the game, although that’s not really an indictment of Mike Bercovici’s play. Bercovici played relatively well and shouldn’t be blamed for the loss, but it’s hard to imagine Kelly throwing a pass nearly as bad as the interception just before halftime that was returned for a score.
That was a momentum swing that proved costly for ASU, and Kelly likely could’ve helped right the ship even if such a terrible momentum swing occurred. Still, blame for the loss certainly belongs on the play of the defense.
MH: The truth is: I don’t know. Obviously, a lot of people are saying, “If Taylor Kelly was in, he wouldn’t have thrown that pick-six at the end of the first half and UCLA wouldn’t have gained momentum and ASU would have won.”
Maybe. Maybe not. Quarterback is the most important position in football and Taylor Kelly is better than Mike Bercovici, but can anyone honestly make that assumption?
Last I checked, there are 11 guys on offense, 11 on defense and 11 on special teams, and that does not include sub-packages. ASU lost by 35 points to a better team. Even without the pick-six, Ishmael Adams had 201 return yards, including the 100-yarder for a touchdown. UCLA’s offense had two touchdown plays of 80 yards and five touchdown drives of 74 yards or more.
And ASU had the ball for 34-plus minutes, put up over 600 yards of offense, ran 105 plays to UCLA’s 58 and had twice as many first downs. What could Taylor Kelly have done better? Not much.
What can this team fix?
JG: The Sun Devils can significantly improve in two areas: making the routine plays and being more balanced on offense. Damarius Randall said it perfectly when he asserted that inexperience has nothing do with making tackles—it has been an integral part of playing defense since Pop Warner, and failing to wrap up is inexcusable. The Sun Devil defense is not talented enough to overwhelm teams with bunches of turnovers and a devastating pass rush. Because of this, they have to be flawless in executing the fundamental and the textbook.
On the offensive side of the ball, I realize that Mike Bercovici said earlier this week that it was not game plan, but rather game flow, that caused him to unleash 68 pass attempts. Still, Bercovici came out chucking early in the game, and feeding D.J. Foster and the other running backs became an afterthought. Just like Tony Romo becomes a more reliable quarterback when the Cowboys limit his attempts, the same can be said for the inexperienced Bercovici. Also, just like the Cowboys, ASU has an offensive line to support this game plan. Balance is key.
AS: The good thing about having a young, inexperienced defense is that the issue dissolves as the season goes on. While the defense likely won’t reach top form until at least 2015, there’s no reason why it shouldn’t consistently improve as the season progresses.
As freshmen like D.J. Calhoun, Tashon Smallwood and Armand Perry settle in, the defense will almost certainly be better during the back half of the schedule.
MH: The offensive strategy. In the first three games, D.J. Foster averaged 22 touches.
Foster had 13 touches against UCLA. For the whole game.
With Kelly out, I thought Foster would have 13 touches in the first quarter. Of course, ASU probably wanted to mix things up, get other guys involved and not get predictable. But Foster is arguably their best player. He needs the ball in his hands, and I expect him to get at least 25 touches per game going forward.
I also expect the Sun Devils to run the ball more. Bercovici passed 68 times against UCLA. True, the Sun Devils got down big and were throwing to try to get back in the game but even when the game was close early, I was surprised at how much they were passing. Bercovici isn’t a running quarterback like Kelly but that’s not an excuse to go pass-happy.
What CAN’T this team fix. As in, what will be a weakness all season?
JG: I do not see the defense improving enough to beat USC or Stanford.
The constant tinkering that Coach Todd Graham experiments with at practice is all about maximizing the talent he has on the field. It is an effort that seeks to find the most productive combinations of players, while masking a lack of players that are talented enough to be must-starts, regardless of the matchup. This entire philosophy is why Kweishi Brown started against UCLA. He is not substantially more skilled than Solomon Means or Armand Perry. His six-foot, 198-pound frame just profiled better against UCLA’s physical receivers.
But there comes a point in which sheer talent overwhelms matchup-based players like Brown. ASU lacks that talent on the defensive side of the ball.
AS: Jaelen Strong is an elite talent and Cameron Smith will be a consistent contributor for ASU, but there really aren’t very many other consistent receiving options for Kelly and Bercovici. Through four games, it’s clear that those are the top two threats, and while guys like Gary Chambers, Fred Gammage and Ronald Lewis should add some receptions, they aren’t the weapons that Strong or Smith are.
The Sun Devils offense is capable of producing otherwise, but the lack of other contributors will likely lead to double coverage for Strong.
MH: The inexperience on defense. As I said earlier, ASU has a tough schedule ahead of them and every week the defense is going to be tested. The next game against USC will be the Sun Devils’ third road game of the season but the first in a truly hostile environment. How will the defense perform on the road after falling flat at home? If the defense continues to struggle, will the players be able to handle the adversity and keep their focus and confidence?
The defense will get better but, as I said earlier, it’s going to take time.
What has changed about your prediction for this team after the UCLA game?
JG: Nothing.
I predicted losses to UCLA, USC and Stanford and then one either to Notre Dame or Oregon State, and I am sticking to it. It is looking like Taylor Kelly’s season is not over, so I have confidence that the Sun Devils will take care of business and win five more games against inferior opponents. At the same time, I do not see them beating any of the “good” teams they play. ASU finishes with an 8-4 record.
AS: I have felt, and still feel, that ASU has enough talent on both sides of the ball to present a threat for absolutely any team on any given day. What changed though, is that they also have enough inexperience to be beat on any given play by any given team. Unless that’s fixed immediately, that’s going to mean a lot of tough games for the Sun Devils and probably a couple more losses than I originally forecasted.
MH: Before the season and before the UCLA game, I said the Sun Devils would finish 8-4. Now, I’m thinking they will finish, at-best, 7-5.
And honestly, 6-6 is a very real possibility for this team. It probably will not happen but from what we saw in the UCLA game and considering the Sun Devils’ recent history against talented opponents under Todd Graham and their upcoming schedule, it could happen. The Sun Devils face three more teams currently ranked – USC, Stanford and Notre Dame – and they also travel to Seattle, Corvallis and Tucson to face Washington, Oregon State and Arizona. I can see them dropping most of those games.
I’m not saying it will happen. I just won’t be surprised if it does.
