(Photo: Nicholas Badders/WCSN)
Another week and another chance for Arizona State to clinch bowl eligibility. The Sun Devils will be headed to Corvallis on Saturday afternoon, looking to exorcise a couple of demons against last-placed Oregon State. First, ASU can secure a bowl berth with a victory, something it did not do last season (the only time ASU has missed out on the postseason in coach Todd Graham’s tenure). Saturday is also the first time the Sun Devils will visit Reser Stadium since their infamous loss there in 2014, a defeat that knocked ASU out of College Football Playoff contention and shifted the paradigm of the program in the Graham era.
Scouting the Beavers
- RUN-FIRST OFFENSE
Rare as it has been, Oregon State’s few occasions of success have come as the result of a productive ground game. In the Beavers’ two closest Pac-12 loses this season (a 36-33 loss to Colorado and 15-14 defeat to Stanford), OSU ran the ball a lot, eclipsing 41 rushing attempts in each game. Behind top running Ryan Nall, who is averaging a respectable 5.2 yards per carry this season, OSU’s offense can come to life. The problem is, the Beavers have too often been trailing by big margins, forcing them to throw and abandon the running game all together.
- LITTLE TO OFFER THROUGH THE AIR
After facing Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in the last three weeks, ASU’s young secondary will get a much different look this week in what has been an ineffective Oregon State pass attack. The Beavers don’t have a single receiver with more than 400 yards or 30 catches this season (the Sun Devils have three). OSU’s starting quarterback, Darrell Garretson, has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 6.1 yards per attempt and only 5 touchdowns. Nall, the running back, is also tied for the third-most receptions on the team. Most of the Beavers’ passing game is centered around short passes in the flat and screens to tail backs coming out of the back field. ASU has struggled with these types of plays in the past, but will be aided by not having to worry about much of a deep threat on Saturday either.
- EASILY WORN DOWN DEFENSE
While OSU’s offense toils to score most weeks, its defense is left defenseless and forced into a spot no unit wants to be: trailing and having to stop the run on most downs. This year, teams have attempted 417 carries against Oregon State, compared to just 299 passing attempts. It is another result of OSU’s penchant for trailing in games: No need for a team to keep throwing the ball when it has a lead, especially sizable ones.
Keys to the Game for ASU
- GET UP EARLY
Both in mental preparedness and on the scoreboard, ASU can’t waste time being slow out of the gates. Saturday is OSU’s senior day, and the Sun Devils have historically struggled in Corvallis anyways. If there was ever a week ASU could benefit from building a big lead early, its now. As noted above, the Beavers have not had many answers to big deficits. Let OSU hang around though, and the 1-9 squad might start sniffing a first conference win of the season.
- FIND THE DEEP BALL
As ASU’s season has progressed, its deep passing game has done the opposite. After an auspicious start to the campaign from deep threats John Humphrey and Frank Darby, the Sun Devils’ downfield attack has been reduced to forcing tight-window throws to a usually covered N’Keal Harry. While Oregon State’s secondary is the stronger half of its defense, the Beavers have struggled in all phases when trying to stop opponents. It could be the perfect time for Manny Wilkins to rediscover his touch on the long ball.
Things to Watch For
- ASU’s OFFENSIVE TEMPO
In search of positives from his team’s loss to UCLA last week, Graham pointed out his pleasure with the quick-tempo his offense had early on in the Rose Bowl. The sixth year coach added to that, saying he wants his team to be a tempo team, something ASU’s offense hasn’t consistently been this year. The quicken pace helped the Sun Devils hang 14 first quarter points on the Bruins though and could very easily be called on again to jump out quickly in Corvallis.
- BANGED UP DEFENDERS
Throughout practice this past week, several key members of the Sun Devils defense sported green “non-contact” jerseys during the media viewing sessions. Safety Dasmond Tautalatasi and cornerback Chase Lucas were at the forefront of that list. When asked about their condition on Wednesday, defensive coordinator Phil Bennett was optimistic that he would have those two available on Saturday. He also said defensive lineman George Lea, who was not a participant in the portions of practice open to the media, could be ready to go.
- SPECIAL TEAMS SWING
In almost every one of ASU’s games this season, a momentum changing play has occurred on special teams: A shanked punt against San Diego State, a blocked punt at Texas Tech, a successful surprise onside kick against Oregon and a punt block of UCLA — just to name a few. In recent weeks, the Sun Devils have toyed with their return game, giving Harry the chance to take back punts and testing out freshman Eno Benjamin and Trelon Smith on kick returns. So far, the Sun Devils have yet to have an impact return. That might not be true by the end of Saturday afternoon.
Prediction
ASU has bad history in Corvallis. But Oregon State is having a historically bad season. The Beavers have lost by at least two touchdowns seven times this season. Their lone win came in a narrow victory over Portland State — a 0-10 FCS team. It is going to take a season-worst performance, and then some, for ASU to miss a second chance at clinching bowl eligibility.
Final: ASU 38, Oregon State 14
